izindaba

Kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaNovemba, ukuthunyelwa kwempushana kwe-PVC yasekhaya kwaqala ukwanda, amabhizinisi endlela ye-ethylene athola ama-oda angcono, amabhizinisi e-calcium carbide nawo anokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwasekhaya kuyaqhubeka kungenxa yokuvulwa kancane kancane kwefasitela le-arbitrage yokuthekelisa kanye nokutholwa kancane kancane kwesidingo samaNdiya.Njengomthengi omkhulu we-PVC emhlabeni, i-India futhi iyindawo eyinhloko yokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-PVC powder evela e-China.Ukuthi ukuthekelisa kwasekhaya kungasimama yini esikhathini esizayo kusadinga ukunaka isidingo saseNdiya.

Lapho kugeleza khona ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke: I-India ingumthengisi omkhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni

Ngokombono wokugeleza kohwebo kwe-PVC ngempushana yomhlaba wonke, izindawo ezinkulu zokuthekelisa zigxile kakhulu e-United States, eChina eTaiwan, ezwekazini laseChina, eJapan, eNingizimu Korea, eCentral Europe, njll., kanti izimpahla zaseMelika zigelezela eMelika Ephakathi neseNingizimu. , iYurophu, i-Afrika neChina;Izimpahla zezwe laseShayina zigeleza ikakhulukazi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, eNdiya, e-Asia Ephakathi, eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseRussian Federation nakwezinye izindawo;Izimpahla zaseTaiwan zigelezela eNdiya, ezweni laseChina, eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia nakwezinye izindawo;Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezinye izimpahla ezivela eNingizimu Korea, Japan, Europe naseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia nazo zigelezela eChina.

I-India inguzakwethu omkhulu womhlaba wonke wokuhwebelana ngempushana we-PVC.Eminyakeni yamuva nje, isidingo se-PVC emakethe yaseNdiya sikhule ngokushesha, kodwa akukho ukufakwa okusha kwe-PVC eNdiya.Amandla okukhiqiza e-India asalokhu ekumathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.61, futhi umkhiqizo wawo ugcinwa cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.4.Ukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kudlule ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya kusukela ngo-2016. Ukuncintisana emakethe yaseNdiya mubi.Izimpahla zase-Asia ezivela eJapan, South Korea, Taiwan, mainland China nase-United States zonke zithatha i-India njengemakethe enkulu yokuthekelisa.Njengamanje, izimpahla ezivela eChina naseTaiwan zincintisana kakhulu emakethe yaseNdiya.

I-India isiba indawo eyinhloko yokuthunyelwa kwempahla e-China

I-India yayivame ukuba nezinyathelo zokulwa nokulahla i-China, ngakho-ke umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-China e-India uphansi kakhulu.Ngo-2021, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwempushana ye-PVC kanye nomthamo we-PVC powder okuthunyelwa eNdiya kwanda kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngoba i-US yayihlushwa amagagasi abandayo abandayo maphakathi noFebhuwari, okwabangela ukuthi cishe ingxenye yezitshalo ze-PVC powder e-US zime. kungazelelwe, kanye nokuntuleka kokuhlinzekwa kwamazwe ngamazwe, okwaletha ithuba lokuthekelisa eChina.Ngo-Agasti, i-US nayo yathinteka yisiphepho, kanti ezinye izitshalo ze-PVC ze-powder zaphinde zahlangabezana ne-force majeure.Khuthaza ukukhuphuka kwevolumu yokuthunyelwa kwempushana yasekhaya ye-PVC futhi.Ngo-2022, inani lokuthunyelwa kwe-China e-India laqhubeka nokukhula, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthi inqubomgomo yase-India yokunqanda ukulahla kumpushana we-PVC evela e-China yaphelelwa yisikhathi ngoJanuwari 2022. Ngaphambi kokuthi kukhishwe inqubomgomo entsha, i-India ayizange ikhokhise intela yokungenisa e-China, kanye nase-India. amabhizinisi asekhaya andise imizamo yawo yokuthenga i-PVC powder e-China ngentengo ephansi.Ngakho-ke, ngo-2022, inani lempushana ye-PVC ethunyelwe isuka e-China iya e-India landa kakhulu, okuphinde kwaqhuba ivolumu yokuthekelisa ye-PVC powder isuka e-China yaya phezulu.

Isimo sokuthekelisa: Isidingo saseNdiya sikhuphuka iwindi lokuthekelisa lasekhaya livuliwe futhi

Ukungena kwikota yesithathu, iwindi le-PVC lasekhaya le-arbitrage livaliwe.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, intengo yasekhaya ye-PVC ilokhu yehla, abathengi bakwamanye amazwe bayaqaphela, futhi kunomoya oqinile wokuthenga phezulu kunokuba wehle.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isidingo sangaphandle sehlile futhi umdlandla wokuthenga wehlile.Ngakho-ke, kusukela engxenyeni yesithathu yokuqala yama-oda wasekhaya we-PVC wokuthekelisa akulungile, amabhizinisi endlela ye-ethylene agcina amakhasimende amadala egxilile ukuze athole ama-oda athile, kodwa ama-oda e-calcium carbide amabhizinisi okuthekelisa avinjiwe, nama-oda okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kufanele alethwe kancane kancane. , ngakho-ke ingxenye yesibili yonyaka, ukuthunyelwa kwe-PVC kwamanye amazwe kwaqala ukuwa kancane kancane.

Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaNovemba, iwindi le-arbitrage lasekhaya le-PVC lasekhaya liye lavulwa kancane kancane, futhi ezinye izinkampani ze-ethylene zithole ama-oda nevolumu, kanti izinkampani ze-calcium carbide zithole ingxenye ye-oda lokuthekelisa.Ngokusho kocwaningo lweZhuochuang Information, inani lamanje le-oda lokuthekelisa le-calcium carbide lingama- $ 780-800 / ton FOB Tianjin, kodwa ngaphezu kwe- $ 800 / ton, amabhizinisi athi i-oda alilungile.Kuze kube manje, amanye amabhizinisi ngo-December inani lama-oda lingaphezu kwamathani angu-5000.Muva nje, imiyalo yokuthekelisa yamabhizinisi e-PVC iye yanda, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngoba iwindi le-arbitrage lokuthekelisa livulwa kancane kancane, nakuba intengo yasekhaya nayo ikhuphuka, kodwa ukumelana nenani eliphezulu eliphansi, kukhona ukumelana nokuthengiswa kwasekhaya;Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kungenxa yesidingo esithuthukisiwe eNdiya.Ngemuva kwesizini yemvula yase-India kanye noMkhosi we-Diwali, kunesidingo sokuphinda sigcwaliswe e-India, futhi ukunikezwa kwezimpahla ezivela e-United States kuyehla, ngakho i-India inyusa inani lokuthenga okuvela e-China.Ngaphezu kwalokho, intengo ye-PVC iphinde yakhuphuka ngezinga eliphansi.IFormosa Plastics yaseTaiwan isanda kumemezela intengo yempahla ye-PVC ngoJanuwari 2023, ngokunyuka kwama- $ 80-90 / ton kanye nokwamukela okuhle, ngakho-ke kusenesidingo sokuqagela sokuphinda sigcwaliswe eNdiya.

Isibikezelo sokuthumela sekwephuzile: Gxila efasiteleni le-arbitrage yokuthekelisa kanye nokuphikelela kwesidingo samaNdiya

Ngokuvulwa kancane kancane kwefasitela le-arbitrage yokuthekelisa ye-PVC muva nje, isimo sokuthekelisa siye saba ngcono, kodwa emakethe yokuthekelisa ye-PVC eyalandela, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kufanele sinake ukuthi indawo ye-arbitrage yokuthekelisa yasekhaya ingaqhubeka nokuvuleka.Yize i-PVC yasekhaya ingenile kusizini engasebenzi, imvelo enkulu iyathuthuka, futhi nokuguquguquka kwentengo ye-PVC kunamandla.Kodwa-ke, njengoba iholidi loMkhosi waseNtwasahlobo lisondela, inani lenhlalo yomphakathi kulindeleke ukuthi liqhubeke nokukhula.Ukuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe kungase kube indlela eyinhloko yabakhiqizi bempushana be-PVC ukukhulula ingcindezi yokusungula.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kusadingeka ukunaka isidingo semakethe yangaphandle.Njengendawo eyinhloko yokuthekelisa yezwe lethu, imakethe yaseNdiya ibalulekile ekuthengisweni kwempushana ye-PVC.Ukwenyuka kwakamuva kokuthekelisa kungenxa yokwanda kwesidingo eNdiya.Kodwa-ke, kufanelekile ukuqaphela ukuthi ngoSepthemba 16, 2022, uMnyango Wezohwebo Nezimboni waseNdiya ukhiphe isaziso esithi empendulweni yesicelo esifakwe amabhizinisi asekhaya aseNdiya, ukungeniswa kwe-PVC kumise inhlaka enokuqukethwe okusele kwe-vinyl chloride monomer. okungaphezu kwe-2PPM kuzoqalwa uphenyo lokuvikela, ngesikhathi sophenyo kusukela ngo-Ephreli 1, 2019 kuya kuJuni 30, 2022. Nokho, ngokocwaningo, okwamanje, amabhizinisi amaningi e-ethylene law kanye namanye amabhizinisi omthetho we-calcium carbide angahlangabezana nezidingo, umthelela othize usadinga ukuqhubeka nokunaka.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuncintisana emakethe yaseNdiya kushubile, futhi izimpahla ezivela eTaiwan, Japan, South Korea nase-United States zonke zicashunwe emakethe yaseNdiya.Ngakho-ke, kusadingeka ukunaka ukuthi intengo yezimpahla ezivela eChina inenzuzo yini esikhathini esizayo.

Ngakho-ke ukuhlanganisa, nakuba ama-oda okulethwa okulindelekile ancipha kancane kancane, ngokuvulwa kwefasitela le-arbitrage yokuthekelisa ngasekupheleni kukaNovemba, ama-oda asekhaya athunyelwa ngaphandle atholwa ngokulandelana, futhi umthamo wokuthekelisa ozolethwa ukhuphuke kancane.Kulindeleke ukuthi ivolumu yokuthekelisa ye-PVC powder izokhuphuka kancane kusukela ngoNovemba kuya kuDisemba ngezinga eliphansi.Ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwempahla yangaphakathi ezweni kungathuthuka yini kwikota yokuqala elandelayo yonyaka ozayo kudingeka kubhekisiswe kakhulu iwindi le-arbitrage yokuthekelisa kanye nesidingo sangaphandle.