izindaba

Ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwe-polypropylene (PP) kuphelele nje kumathani angama-424,746 ngo-2020, okungesona isizathu sokuthukuthela phakathi kwabathekelisi abakhulu base-Asia naseMpumalanga Ephakathi.Kepha njengoba ishadi elingezansi likhombisa, ngo-2021, iChina yangena ezinhlwini zabathengisi abahamba phambili, ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuke kwafinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.4.

Kusukela ngo-2020, ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwakufana kuphela nalokho kwase-Japan ne-India.Kepha ngo-2021, iChina yathumela ngaphezu kwe-United Arab Emirates, enenzuzo ezintweni ezingavuthiwe.

Akekho okufanele amangale, njengoba i-trajectory icacile kusukela ngo-2014 ngenxa yokushintsha okukhulu kwenqubomgomo.Ngalowo nyaka yanquma ukwandisa ukuzimela kwayo kumakhemikhali nama-polymers.

Ikhathazekile ngokuthi uguquko ekugxilweni kokutshalwa kwezimali ekuthengisweni phesheya kwezilwandle kanye noshintsho kupolitiki yezwe kungaholela ekuhlinzekeni okungaqinisekile kwezinto ezithengwayo, i-Beijing ikhathazekile ngokuthi i-China idinga ukubalekela uxhaso lwemali engenayo emaphakathi ngokuthuthukisa izimboni zamanani aphezulu.

Kweminye imikhiqizo, kucatshangwa ukuthi i-China ingasuka ekubeni umthengisi omkhulu wezimpahla kwamanye amazwe iye kumthengisi wezimpahla ngaphandle, ngaleyo ndlela ikhulise imali etholwayo yokuthekelisa.Lokhu kwenzeka ngokushesha nge-terephthalic acid (PTA) ehlanzekile ne-polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resins.

I-PP ibonakala iyikhandidethi elisobala lokuthi ekugcineni likwazi ukuzimela ngokugcwele, ngaphezu kwe-polyethylene (PE), ngoba ungenza i-propylene feedstock ngezindlela eziningana zokuncintisana nezindleko, kanti ukwenza i-ethylene udinga ukuchitha izigidigidi zamaRandi ukwakha ukuqhekeka kwe-steam. amayunithi.

Idatha yaminyaka yonke ye-PP yase-China Customs kaJanuwari-May 2022 (ihlukaniswe ngo-5 futhi iphindwe ngo-12) iphakamisa ukuthi ukuthengiswa konyaka ogcwele kwe-China kungakhuphukela ku-1.7m ngo-2022. Njengoba kungekho ukunwetshwa kwamandla okuhlelelwe i-Singapore kulo nyaka, i-China ingagcina inselele. izwe njengelizwe lesithathu elikhulu elithumela kwamanye amazwe e-Asia naseMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Mhlawumbe ukuthunyelwa kweChina unyaka wonke ngo-2022 kungaba ngaphezulu kwamathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.7, njengoba ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuke kusuka kumathani ayi-143,390 kuya kumathani angama-218,410 ngoMashi nango-Ephreli ka-2022. Kodwa-ke, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwehle kancane kwaya kumathani angama-211,809 ngoMeyi uma kuqhathaniswa no-Ephreli -21 kanti ngo-20 , ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwanda kakhulu ngo-April kwase kwehla cishe ingxenye enkulu yonyaka.

Lo nyaka ungase uhluke, nokho, njengoba isidingo sasendaweni sahlala sibuthakathaka kakhulu ngoMeyi, njengoba ishadi elibuyekeziwe elingezansi lisitshela.Kungenzeka sibone ukukhula okuqhubekayo kwenyanga nenyanga kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuze kuphele u-2022. Ake ngichaze ukuthi kungani.

Kusukela ngoJanuwari 2022 kuya kuMashi 2022, futhi njalo ngonyaka (ihlukaniswe ngo-3 futhi iphindwe ngo-12), ukusetshenziswa kweChina kubukeka kuzokhula ngamaphesenti ama-4 unyaka wonke.Khona-ke ngoJanuwari-April, idatha ibonise ukukhula okuphansi, futhi manje ibonisa ukwehla kwe-1% ngoJanuwari-May.

Njengenjwayelo, ishadi elingenhla likunikeza izimo ezintathu zesidingo sonyaka ogcwele ngo-2022.

Isimo 1 siwumphumela omuhle kakhulu wokukhula okungu-2%.

Isimo 2 (sisekelwe kudatha kaJanuwari-Meyi) sinegethivu ngo-1%

Isimo sesi-3 sisusa u-4%.

Njengoba ngixoxile ekuthunyelwe kwami ​​​​ngoJuni 22, yini ezosisiza ukuthi siqonde ukuthi kwenzekani ngempela emnothweni yilokho okwenzekayo ngokulandelayo ekuhlukaniseni amanani phakathi kwe-polypropylene (PP) ne-polyethylene (PE) ku-naphtha e-China.

Kuze kube isonto eliphela mhla ziyi-17 kuJuni kulo nyaka, ukusabalala kwe-PP ne-PE kwahlala kuseduze namazinga aphansi kakhulu kusukela saqala ukubuyekezwa kwentengo yethu ngoNovemba 2002. Ukusabalala phakathi kwezindleko zamakhemikhali nama-polymers kanye ne-feedstocks sekuyisikhathi eside kube esinye sezinyathelo ezinhle kakhulu amandla kunoma iyiphi imboni.

Idatha ye-macroeconomic yaseChina ixubene kakhulu.Okuningi kuncike ekutheni iChina ingaqhubeka yini nokunciphisa izindlela zayo eziqinile zokuvala isivalo, indlela yayo yokuqeda izinhlobo ezintsha zaleli gciwane.

Uma umnotho uba mubi kakhulu, ungacabangi ukuthi iPP iqala izohlala emazingeni aphansi abonakala kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi.Ukuhlola kwethu ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya kuphakamisa izinga lokusebenza eliphelele lika-2022 elingamaphesenti angama-78 kuphela, uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso sethu samaphesenti angama-82 salo nyaka.

Izimboni zaseShayina zehlise izilinganiso zenzalo ngomzamo wokubuyisela emuva amamajini abuthaka kubakhiqizi be-PP baseNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngokusekelwe ku-naphtha ne-propane dehydrogenation, ngempumelelo encane kuze kube manje.Mhlawumbe enye ye-4.7 mtPA yomthamo omusha we-PP oza ku-inthanethi kulo nyaka izobambezeleka.

Kodwa i-yuan ebuthakathaka uma iqhathaniswa nedola ingase ikhuthaze ukuthunyelwa okukhulu kwamanye amazwe ngokukhuphula amanani okusebenza nokuvula amafekthri amasha ngesikhathi.Kuyaphawuleka futhi ukuthi amandla amaningi amasha eShayina “asezingeni eliphezulu” emhlabeni wonke, okuvumela ukufinyelela ezintweni zokusetshenziswa ezinenani elincintisanayo.

Buka i-yuan uma iqhathaniswa nedola, esele yehle kuze kube manje ngo-2022. Buka umehluko phakathi kwezintengo ze-PP zaseShayina nezaphesheya kwezilwandle njengoba ukwehlukana kuzoba omunye umshayeli omkhulu wohwebo lokuthekelisa lwase-China kuze kuphele unyaka.